If, as now expected, Pelosi withholds the measure until at least next year, it will mark a major victory for Turkey which, after the Committee vote last week, recalled its ambassador here for "consultations" as the first of a series of possible measures designed both to convey its displeasure and, if necessary, inflict serious damage on Washington's position, especially in Iraq.
Of particular concern has been the possibility that Ankara might restrict access to its airspace and, in particular, to Incirlik Air Base in eastern Turkey, the single most important external logistics air hub for U.S. military operations in Iraq.
Indeed, about 70 percent of all air cargo sent to Iraq passes through or crosses Turkey, as does some 30 percent of the fuel imported to the U.S. military and virtually of its new, heavily-armoured vehicles, according to the Pentagon.
Turkey severed all military ties with France after its parliament voted last year to make the denial of the Armenian "genocide" a crime, and it did nothing to discourage speculation here during the past week that it would take similar steps if the genocide resolution went forward.
"Having worked this issue in the last Bush administration (1989-1993), I don't think the Turks are bluffing," Pentagon chief Robert Gates told reporters here Thursday shortly after meeting the defense minister of Armenia, which has had very rocky relations with Ankara. Turkey has enforced a virtual blockade against Armenia since the early 1990.
"I will say again it has potential to do real harm to our troops in Iraq and would strain -- perhaps beyond repair -- our relationship with a key ally in a vital region and in the wider war on terror," added Gates, who has been the most outspoken Cabinet-level official opposed to the resolution.
The possibility that it might restrict the use by the U.S. military of Turkish territory and airspace is not the only concern faced by Washington about Ankara at the moment, however.
Increasingly frustrated by Washington's failure to either take direct action against Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) guerrillas or persuade the Iraqi or Iraqi Kurdistan governments to do so, the Turkish parliament voted overwhelmingly Wednesday to authorise sending troops into northern Iraq to attack PKK units based there. The vote was 507 to 19 Ð a margin that may have been inflated as a result of anger over the genocide resolution.
The PKK, which is considered by the U.S. to be a terrorist group, has mounted a series of recent deadly actions against targets inside Turkey in recent weeks. At least 30 Turkish soldiers, police and civilians have been killed in PKK attacks in just the past two weeks, according to published reports.
While most analysts here and in Turkey do not expect the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to order a major cross-border operation in the near future, the fact that the parliament has now authorized such a move makes the threat of doing so far more credible.
Iraqi Kurdistan is the one region in Iraq that has been relatively stable -- and thus has not required the presence of U.S. troops -- since the U.S. occupation of the country began in 2003.
Any significant Turkish incursion, of the kind it carried out relatively routinely during the 1990s, could plunge the region into turmoil at a moment when U.S. forces are already overstretched, according to analysts here who also noted that crude oil futures jumped to an all-time high of nearly 90 dollars a barrel after Wednesday's vote.
Moreover, the pesh merga -- the Iraqi Kurdish militia forces that are nominally part of the Iraqi army and security forces -- could well rally behind the PKK against the Turks in the event of a significant cross-border attack, others noted. Indeed, thousands of Kurds, mostly students, reportedly took part rallies to protest the Turkish legislation in Irbil, Kurdistan's capital, Thursday.
It is in this context that mainly Democratic lawmakers who previously backed the Armenian genocide bill here have been reassessing their position during the last few days.
"We need every ally we can get [in Iraq]," said Murtha, a co-sponsor of the resolution who has since withdrawn his support. "[Turkey is] important to our effort in Iraq. We've got 160,000 troops in Iraq. This is important to the U.S. effort in Iraq, period."
"This is not the time to stick our finger in the eyes of the Turks," said Rep. Mike Ross, another former co-sponsor who switched his position this week.
Turkey has been aided as well by an expensive lobbying campaign organized and led by a former Republican speaker, Robert Livingstone, and Richard Gephardt, who, as the former Democratic House Leader, had co-sponsored a similar resolution. They have also been joined by several key lawmakers considered close to the so-called Israel Lobby, including the influential Democratic Caucus chairman, Rep. Rahm Emmanuel.
Israel has cultivated close ties with Turkey, particularly with its military, over the past two decades, and Turkish officials have reportedly requested its help in lobbying against the resolution.
Against this, Armenian Americans, of whom there are an estimated 1.5 million concentrated mostly in California, face an uphill battle.
"I truly hope that no member of Congress is persuaded to jump ship on such a critical vote as this simply because of some threats by a foreign government," said Armenian Assembly Executive Director Bryan Ardouny.
"The government of Turkey and its million-dollar lobbyists are effectively blackmailing the Congress and the government of the United States. We should stand up to the threats and demand that Turkey immediately cease its campaign of misinformation and threats," he added.
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Albion Monitor October
18, 2007 (http://www.albionmonitor.com)
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